Are people still flocking to the cities?
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posted by Bob at Thursday, July 19, 2007
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Thursday, July 19, 2007
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7 Comments:
Folks still flocking to the Cities? Maybe not
Growth has sharply declined, the Met Council says. The new estimates are being met with skepticism by some suburban officials.
By David Peterson, Star Tribune
Last update: July 19, 2007 – 12:06 AM
Folks still flocking to the Cities? Maybe not
Northfield's embattled chief produces another surprise
The Metropolitan Council is reporting a big decline in the rate of growth in the metro area. But officials in the county with the largest dropoff scoff at the numbers, saying they have mostly to do with a change in how the count is done.
"There is no consistent pattern here," said Jack Ditmore, Dakota County's head of operations, management and budget. Though growth may be slowing, he said, the Met Council's methodology "frankly leaves us scratching our heads as to what is going on."
After reporting last year that the metro gained nearly 40,000 people between 2004 and 2005, the Met Council on Wednesday said that growth in the seven most populous metropolitan counties between 2005 and 2006 shrank to a little over 11,000.
Some dropoff was expected, considering the steep decline in home building. But officials in Dakota County say they don't believe that after growing by nearly 8,500 people the year before, they added only 55 souls in the 12-month period ending in April 2006, as the Met Council estimated. They think it's closer to 4,000 to 5,000.
Most counties are shown as having major declines in growth, and officials said they're puzzled by the numbers.
Todd Graham, the council's research manager, said the answer to the mystery is that new data is allowing the council to make a more precise estimate.
"We're trying to make the best possible estimates given the data we have," he said, adding with a smile: "If anyone wants a refund on their past estimates. ..."
The source of the data, he said, is the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, which for the first time late last year had enough responses to be considered reliable.
That survey, Graham said, allowed the council's experts to modify their estimates all across the metro of "average household size for various types of housing -- and those changes were significant."
The problem with comparing earlier estimates with the new ones, he said, is that given that new data, "we would not today calculate the same 2005 estimates that we published in July 2006."
In the meantime, though, growth may well be slowing. Statistics gathered by the Keystone Report for the Builders Association of the Twin Cities showed that only 12,644 new housing units were authorized by cities during 2006, down from 18,255 in 2005 -- a decline of 30 percentage points.
Public officials in counties and cities are keenly interested in the direction of growth.
Steve Nelson, spokesman for Washington County, said officials there aren't sure what's going on. "We need to take a closer look at it," he said. "We're interested in what the Met Council has put out, but we need to take the time analyze it and see what's going on."
Compared with earlier data still available on its website, the Met Council reported big declines in the growth rates for Washington County and most of the other metro counties, though not as big as Dakota's. In Anoka County, for instance, reported year-over-year growth of more than 9,500 people fell to only 2,221. And heads were being scratched there as well.
"There's a lot of construction going on as I go around the county," said Terry Johnson, county administrator in Anoka. "People are moving in. They could be vacating older homes for newer ones, but it feels like we're still growing."
All sides agree that even as it might appear that a seemingly fast-growing county like Dakota is picking up steam, older parts of the same county could easily be losing population as grown children leave home and go off on their own, or as elderly people are widowed.
In some ways, Graham said, the bottom line is that demographers are learning something about a changing Twin Cities area.
"A demographic shift has happened and continues to happen," he said. "Our estimates for 2006 are catching up to that shift." Longer lives and aging baby boomers, he said, are "leading to smaller household sizes," with more two-person households and more people living alone.
In Dakota County, meanwhile, Ditmore said, there's one small consolation. "The first numbers they showed us, a couple of months ago, had us declining!"
David Peterson • 612-673-4440 • dapeterson@startribune.com
The Northfield's embattled chief also took a leave of absence after the facts of his last report of the herion issues in Northfield started being questioned. This leave of absence also was stated with it being questionable on whether he would be returning to his position as chief or not.
Our world is changing. Look at the statistics for job projections on the state's website. The middle class is disappearing, which will drive housing demands.
Since the cities are high maintenance, and dependent on corrupt city services, such as inspections, I don't believe the cities will do well. Without a middle class, are we going to be able to support far out suburbs? I don't think so. I think the close suburbs, those without old housing, is the place to be.
I have recently had several inquiries from individuals moving here (Anoka County) from the Chicago area. And no, they are not seeking our welfare system but rather the employement oppertunities, their jobs are already set up or started(and verified). They also have stated that they want to stay away from the St.Paul/Mpls area due to stories they have heard about crime and the treatment (discrimination) people of color are noted to have been recieving. The first time I more or less took with a grain of salt so to speak... But I have now had several others seeking apartments that have all stated basically the same thing. I would have to say that the cities (St.Paul/Mpls)are facing some real serious isssues based on this. It is obvious people are not feeling welcome or for that matter they no longer want to be welcome or part of the city.
Nancy
Reread the article. They are talking about a decline in the rate of growth... the metro area is not growing as fast as once thought.
And the comments from the areas that were most concerned about that reduction in the rate of growth were from DAKOTA and ANOKA counties. The article is about that the growth engines, the exurbs, are not growing as fast as once projected.
This isn't an indictment of the central cities even though they don't grow as fast as the burbs, this just saying the area is not growing as fast as thought.
JMONTOMEPPOF
Chuck Repke
I just wanted to take this opportunity to give an update to my June 1 Ademocracy posting, where the City of St Paul forced my family out of our home.
First, my family and I appreciate the tremendous support we received from Bob and the people posting comments on Ademocracy.
Never before has anyone in my family received such abusive treatment as by the city.
We could not find any valid reason for these actions: Private single family house, no behaviour problems, and we had a proper electrical permit by a licenced bonded electrician done under city inspection in 1993 (The city did not retain the permit and evidently concluded there was no [permit, despite my proof to the contrary. I am confident the electrical work was in full compliance with the double standards the city used for Selby Avenue in 1993).
I conclude the treatment we received was due to hidden agendas by a city that will not work with people.
My wife and I have purchased a home outside of St. Paul.
This is a loss to the City of St. Paul. As a person who put countless hours into my community, and a key idea person, I had produced a lot of money, hope, and prestige for the community as well as Minneapolis and St. Paul, which utilize my approaches.
Best wishes with this difficult issue.
Sincerely,
R. Glenn (Bob) Gausman
Fiduciary Duty is the highest standard of care imposed at either equity or law: A fiduciary ( City of St. Paul) is to be loyal to the persons to whom they owe the duty (the principal-We the People) they ie: City of St. Paul must not put their personal intersts before the duty, must not profit from their position as a fiduciary, unless the principal consents: St. Paul is the Gehetto meaning Get the Hell out. Sharon Scarrella Anderson is also being victimized, Street Fighter http://sharons-foia.blogspot.com FIGHT BACK GET COMPENSATED FOR OUR LOSS'S VOTE THE INCUMBENTS OUT...All the taxpayers have is our Good Will its either Principle-Principal
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